By 2003, networking standards such as HomePNA, HomePlug, HomeRF, or 802.11b will be able to support speeds fast enough to allow distributed digital MPEG4 (a next-generation compression standard for digital video) over home networks.

Parks Associates, Dallas, recently completed a consumer study in which 69 percent of respondents said they would be interested in a DSS solution that would let them watch programming on a second TV without the separate receiver (usually costing $100 to $200).

"Another driver will be the idea of having a home server that will store content, from music to videos and games," said Parks home networks analyst Kurt Scherf. "We've already seen the popularity of the TiVo Replay devices. There are a lot of folks who think that something like that will be the centerpiece of the home network. Napster [or other MP3 websites] could be on the server, and the kids could stream [MP3] to any stereo in the home. Forty five percent of consumers said they were interested in audio networking."

HomePlug, however, has the advantage of myriad wall-jack outlets throughout the house, although some industry members say older homes with older wiring may not be able to support a network. In addition, power-line networks may be subject to interference.

"Nothing will really happen with power-line in 2000 because there's no HomePlug spec yet," said Parks' Scherf. "If they make a first-quarter 2001 deadline, they'd be doing pretty well. Ethernet and phone-line will still dominate this year, and RF is finally picking up.

"Power-line will probably capture more than the 15 percent market share we had originally predicted by the end of 2004. It will probably cut into phone-line's share."

Scherf's original forecasts for 2004 called for a total 29-30 million network nodes (networked items such as PCs) in the United States, with phone-line taking a 55 percent share, HomeRF or 802.11b at 25-30 percent, and power-line at 15 percent.

From the article, "Technology On Brink Of Explosive Growth," by Amy Gilroy.